Good news for the economy: India to have 'normal' Monsoon this year, says IMD
16 Апреля, 2018, 17:24
The forecast based on the MMCFS suggests that the monsoon rainfall during the 2018 monsoon season (June to September) averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 99% ± 5% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
A normal monsoon will not only aid agriculture growth but could have a positive impact on the overall rural economy crucial for the ruling BJP government as it faces critical state elections followed by the big National Polls in 2019.
Ramesh also announced category-wise forecast in terms of probabilities for normal (96-104 per cent), above normal (104-110 per cent), excess (more than 110 per cent), below normal (90-96 per cent) and deficient (less than 90 per cent) rainfall. Monsoon rains rains this year will be at 100 percent - with an error margin of +/-4 percent - of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September.
The onset of the monsoon in June kick-starts planting of rain-fed Kharif crops.
IMD issues various monthly and seasonal forecasts of rainfall for the southwest monsoon season.
A figure between 96 and 104 per cent of rainfall indicates a normal monsoon and between 105 and 110 per cent above normal.
As per the IMD, there is 42 percent possibility of normal rainfall and 12 percent possibility of heavy rainfall - it means the country can witness some rainfall in the country. The country receives some 70 per cent of its annual rainfall during the four-month Monsoon season.
IMD's forecast of 97% rainfall comes with a model error of (plus-minus) 5%.
It said that normal rains are likely for the country, particularly East India, while the Southern Peninsula and parts of Northeast India could be at some risk of getting below normal rains.
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