Wednesday, 23 May, 2018

Rising US supply knocks oil prices for a third day

OPEC hikes 2018 forecast for oil supply growth US Shale Boom Could Force OPEC To Take Action: Here's How India Can Benefit
Preston Stone | 15 February, 2018, 15:19

The bearish forecast comes a week after the U.S. EIA said much of the same thing: shale output is rising so quickly that the U.S. could reach 11 million barrels per day (mb/d) this year instead of next year.

Crude oil price increases in past months have stalled as non-OPEC producers, mainly the U.S., continue to pump out product and global supply is likely to outpace demand in 2018, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.

Steady gains in crude oil prices since the middle of a year ago have stimulated USA crude oil production, not only in the US shale oil sector, but also in the deep US waters in the Gulf of Mexico.

Even with a recent wobble, crude oil prices have been on a tear in recent years, underpinned by the belief that production cuts from OPEC and its allies, along with firmer global growth, will help to balance the global market.

The U.S. shale revolution could prove to be a game changer for India, if the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) is to be believed. The accord ended a record global oil glut after more than two years of low crude prices that overstretched many state budgets. "In just three months to November, (U.S.) crude output increased by a colossal 846,000 bpd and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia".

USA production rose to 10.27 million bpd last week, EIA data showed, which, if confirmed by monthly data, would represent an all-time record for US output.

The bank said factors which pushed oil prices higher, including increased global demand, supply disruptions and USA producer discipline, were less likely to be sustainable.

Dow higher as Wall Street starts week in better mood
Inflation in particular will be of interest as it could affect expectations of more rate increases the Federal Reserve. US stocks are posting solid gains Monday as technology and energy companies recover some of their recent losses.

"We stick to our bearish view and see more downside for oil prices".

But, if demand disappoints, or if more supply comes from unexpected places - Libya's output apparently hit a five-year high in January - then things look pretty pessimistic.

But in thin post-close trading, US crude futures were down 34 cents at $58.95 a barrel.

The manic American pumping, which the IEA estimates will average 10.4 million barrels a day this year, could cause a glut to return to global markets. The futures on U.S. light crude oil reported a price increase of 0.56% to 59.62 United States dollars per barrel, while the Brent variety increased by 0.61% to 62.97 USD per barrel.

Back in 2014, USA shale production was growing so fast that it ended up crashing the market.

The market rallied after Al Falih said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said he would rather leave the oil market slightly short of supplies than lift output cuts too early. As production increases continue unabated, oil prices could collapse again.

"If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself", the IEA said.

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