Monday, 22 January, 2018

'No deal' Brexit could cost Britain about 500000 jobs, says London mayor

Sadiq khan GETTY Sadiq Khan has released a report detailing the negative impacts of Brexit
Sammy Stanley | 12 January, 2018, 20:09

The scenarios range from a relatively seamless exit to leaving on World Trade Organization () terms without a transition deal, described by the study as a "hard Brexit".

Softer Brexit scenarios, such as the United Kingdom remaining in the Single Market (preserving free movement of goods, services and people between EU member states), but leaving the Customs Union could possibly result in around 175,000 job losses across the country.

While the analysis says London's economic output could be as much as 2% lower than predicted under the status quo, it also suggests this would be below a national fall of between 3 per cent and 3.3 per cent lower.

The research released Thursday warns of a "lost decade" of significantly lower economic growth resulting in 482,000 fewer jobs and 50 billion pounds ($67 billion) of lost investment by 2030 if the worst-case scenario becomes a reality.

He added: "The analysis concludes that the harder the Brexit we end up with, the bigger the potential impact on jobs, growth and living standards".

London Mayor Sadiq Khan, who campaigned against Brexit, commissioned the study and said the findings show "the potential economic risks - and human costs - at stake in the negotiations" in Brussels.

Peter Whittle
GETTY Peter Whitle attacked Khan over his Brexit report

Khan urged Prime Minister Theresa May to ensure Britain avoids this outcome by negotiating "a deal that enables us to remain in both the single market and the customs union".

The impact assessments could infuriate the Government, which has insisted such information could undermine negotiations. Khan had commissioned this taxpayer-funded impact assessments after Brexit Secretary David Davis said the government had not done such work.

The Treasury is believed to have carried out similar calculations, but it is unclear even if the Cabinet sub-committee responsible for overseeing negotiations have been shown them.

"There is no sector not negatively impacted", Mr Khan told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

"In order to make sure we protect ourselves against the most damaging effects of Brexit in the South West, we must stay in the Single Market and the Customs Union".

Financial services jobs new to the market in December fell to 3,150 from 4,980 in December 2016, the report said, as uncertainty around the terms of Britain's exit from the European Union made companies in the city reluctant to hire. Across the creative and cultural industries as a whole, there would be 27,000 fewer jobs.

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