Thursday, 23 November, 2017

U.S. leads world in oil and gas production, IEA says

Crude oil at $60/bbl not the 'new normal' - IEA Oil market could tip out of balance on rising non-Opec production
Preston Stone | 14 November, 2017, 20:41

And the IEA expects non-OPEC countries to boost output by 1.4 million barrels a day next year, doubling this year's production growth. The effort, which started in January, is credited with pulling the price of oil back from the sub-$30 per barrel range last year to two-year highs in recent sessions.

The difference between supply and demand isn't as tight as "some would like", the IEA added.

"Oil is already facing stiff competition from ever-cheaper and more environmentally friendly energy sources as traditional fossil fuel users switch to cleaner, low-carbon alternatives", IEA said in its World Energy Outlook 2018.

The IEA, which tracks the energy for 29 countries, said the U.S. - once reliant on imports - is becoming the "undisputed global oil and gas leader".

The International Energy Agency's forecast on demand have been abysmal and now once again they are low balling demand at least compared to OPEC which says that said oil use would grow faster than previously thought due to a stronger-than-expected world economy.

Under its "New Policies Scenario", based on existing legislation and announced policy intentions relative to emissions and climate change, the oil price should continue to rise towards $83 a barrel by the mid-2020s.

The IEA noted that output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was down by 830,000 bpd year-on-year in October, although demand for the group's crude is expected to fall to 32.6 million bpd in the fourth quarter of this year and to 32.0 million bpd in the first quarter of 2018.

"While other major companies continue to maintain a presence in oil sands operations, it remains an open question whether the exit of these companies will impact prospects for oil sands development over the longer term", the IEA said.

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Worldwide, oil consumption is seen reaching 97.7 million bpd in 2017, up 1.5 million bpd from 2016.

The U.S. shale surge could also mean an era of lower-for-longer oil prices.

The IEA estimates that there will be 50 million electric vehicles (EVs) on the road by 2025 and 300 million by 2040, from closer to 2 million now.

Crude has climbed lately to a two-year high around $57 USA a barrel in trading in NY, although it is not seen making much larger gains due to rising U.S. output.

But the price crash had another effect: it forced a wave of innovation that has improved shale producers' productivity and efficiency.

Also weighing on the oil price, is the increasing prospect of a slower pace of economic growth in China.

The predictions come from the International Energy Agency's annual energy forecast.

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